{"id":432,"date":"2022-05-28T20:27:07","date_gmt":"2022-05-28T18:27:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/?p=432"},"modified":"2022-05-28T20:27:08","modified_gmt":"2022-05-28T18:27:08","slug":"inflace-je-zaludna-vec-dokaze-prinest-nejen-cenovou-nestabilitu-ale-take-kolaps-statu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/inflace-je-zaludna-vec-dokaze-prinest-nejen-cenovou-nestabilitu-ale-take-kolaps-statu\/","title":{"rendered":"Inflace je z\u00e1ludn\u00e1 v\u011bc. Dok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159in\u00e9st nejen cenovou nestabilitu, ale tak\u00e9 kolaps st\u00e1t\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pokud by sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010dovalo d\u00e9le a v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm tempem, n\u011bmeck\u00fd ekonom Gunther Schnabl nevylu\u010duje revoluce ani v n\u011bkter\u00fdch vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00edch sv\u011bta.<br>U\u017e je to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rok, co lid\u00e9 nejen na Slovensku, ale v t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00edch sv\u011bta za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed. Rodinn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty jsou st\u00e1le napjat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 \u010di podnikatel\u00e9 sleduj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 denn\u011b, jak jim rostou cenovky p\u0159ed o\u010dima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Jak je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee z ni\u010deho nic n\u00e1s zas\u00e1hla tak velk\u00e1 inflace, jsme si pov\u00eddali s ekonomem z Lipsk\u00e9 univerzity Guntherem Schnablem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V rozhovoru s Guntherem Schnablem se mimo jin\u00e9 dozv\u00edte:<br>\u2013 jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem vyvol\u00e1vaj\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky inflaci;<br>\u2013 jak ohro\u017euje inflace ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst zem\u00ed;<br>\u2013 jak\u00e9 kroky by m\u011bly u\u010dinit centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky, aby zastavily sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed;<br>\u2013 jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem se manipuluj\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla inflace, kter\u00e1 zve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed statistick\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady;<br>\u2013 pro\u010d jsme si v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 let u\u017e\u00edvali n\u00edzk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V sou\u010dasnosti prob\u00edh\u00e1 velk\u00e1 debata o tom, co je skute\u010dnou p\u0159\u00ed\u010dinou nar\u016fstaj\u00edc\u00ed inflace t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b. \u010c\u00e1st ekonom\u016f a analytik\u016f to p\u0159isuzuje v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b i ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 celosv\u011btov\u00e9 pandemii. Vy v\u0161ak vid\u00edte za sou\u010dasnou inflac\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politiku centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank. M\u016f\u017eete to vysv\u011btlit?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J\u00e1 vych\u00e1z\u00edm z u\u010den\u00ed jednoho z nejzn\u00e1m\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ekonom\u016f Miltona Friedmana, nositele Nobelovy ceny, kter\u00fd tvrdil, \u017ee inflace je v\u017edy monet\u00e1rn\u00edm fenom\u00e9nem. Pokud d\u00e1v\u00e1te do ob\u011bhu v\u00edce pen\u011bz ne\u017e celkov\u00fd objem vyprodukovan\u00e9ho zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb, d\u0159\u00edve \u010di pozd\u011bji se to projev\u00ed na inflaci. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku tis\u00edcilet\u00ed m\u016f\u017eeme pozorovat, jak centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00ed pumpovaly pen\u00edze do ob\u011bhu v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed s celkov\u00fdmi vyroben\u00fdmi produkty a slu\u017ebami.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kdy\u017e \u0159\u00edk\u00e1te, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky takto postupovaly u\u017e od nov\u00e9ho tis\u00edcilet\u00ed, jak je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee jsme ale \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed inflaci nepoci\u0165ovali v\u00edce ne\u017e 20 let? Dokonce n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 n\u00e1s stra\u0161ili z deflace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed, jak si definujete pojem inflace. V ekonomii nen\u00ed jednotn\u00e1 definice. Rakousk\u00e1 \u0161kola pova\u017euje za inflaci jak\u00e9koli zv\u011bt\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed objemu pen\u011bz v ob\u011bhu. Milton Friedman a chicagsk\u00e1 \u0161kola inflaci charakterizuje jako zv\u011bt\u0161en\u00ed objemu pen\u011bz nad r\u00e1mec vyprodukovan\u00e9ho hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu (HDP). Ekonomie hlavn\u00edho proudu zase definuje inflaci jako n\u00e1r\u016fst cenov\u00e9 hladiny spot\u0159ebn\u00edho ko\u0161e, ve kter\u00e9m jsou zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby pro kone\u010dn\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tak\u017ee z tohoto pohledu jsme byli sv\u011bdky inflace nejprve na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch, k nim\u017e se p\u0159idaly i nemovitosti a posledn\u00ed rok m\u016f\u017eeme sledovat i v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pro\u010d v\u0161ak za\u010daly r\u016fst spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny a\u017e nyn\u00ed v posledn\u00edch zhruba 12 m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed to na tom, kam sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed nov\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 pen\u00edze. Nejprve \u0161li na finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy, kde jsme mohli vid\u011bt v\u00fdrazn\u00fd r\u016fst akci\u00ed, jako\u017e i dal\u0161\u00edch aktiv. Postupn\u011b za\u010dal p\u0159it\u00e9kat tak\u00e9 do trhu s nemovitostmi. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m, \u017ee na Slovensku jste tak\u00e9 jist\u011b zaznamenali v\u00fdrazn\u00fd r\u016fst cen byt\u016f a dom\u016f.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ano, m\u00e1te pravdu. Za posledn\u00edch v\u00edce ne\u017e dvacet let neust\u00e1le rostly krom\u011b p\u00e1r let po ekonomick\u00e9 krizi v roce 2008.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">P\u0159esn\u011b to je v\u00fdsledkem uvoln\u011bn\u00e9 monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politiky. V\u011bt\u0161ina t\u011bchto nov\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00fdch pen\u011bz v\u0161ak doned\u00e1vna nekon\u010dila p\u0159\u00edmo v kaps\u00e1ch b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch lid\u00ed. To se ale zm\u011bnilo s n\u00e1stupem covidu. B\u011bhem pandemie, kdy mnoho odv\u011btv\u00ed nevyr\u00e1b\u011blo a zam\u011bstnanci sed\u011bli doma, se nov\u011b vytvo\u0159en\u00e9 pen\u00edze dostaly i b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm lidem prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm r\u016fzn\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch podpor. To rozto\u010dilo inflaci v r\u00e1mci spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">M\u016f\u017eeme se na to i takhle d\u00edvat, ale je to tak \u00fazk\u00fd pohled. B\u011bhem pandemie lid\u00e9 nahromadili spoustu \u00faspor a do toho dostali je\u0161t\u011b obrovsk\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek pomoci. Mezit\u00edm n\u011bkter\u00e9 firmy zav\u0159ely sv\u016fj byznys, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b nastaly probl\u00e9my s dod\u00e1vkami. Jakmile skon\u010dily lockdowny, tak spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 za\u010dali ve velk\u00e9m utr\u00e1cet. \u010cili najednou jsme m\u011bli na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b spoustu pen\u011bz a na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b m\u00e9n\u011b produkt\u016f \u010di slu\u017eeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Pochopiteln\u011b tento konflikt zap\u0159\u00ed\u010dinil zdra\u017een\u00ed, av\u0161ak ceny z\u00e1kladn\u00edch komodit rostly ji\u017e mnohem d\u0159\u00edve. V souvislosti s inflac\u00ed jsou d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 i o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Firmy a producenti po\u010d\u00edtali s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi n\u00e1kupn\u00edmi cenami ji\u017e v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce a neo\u010dek\u00e1vali, \u017ee by m\u011bli za\u010d\u00edt klesat. To se projevilo n\u00e1sledn\u011b i na cenovk\u00e1ch fin\u00e1ln\u00edch produkt\u016f a slu\u017eeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zm\u00ednil jste, \u017ee ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed statistika jist\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem zakr\u00fdvala skute\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00edsla ohledn\u011b spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen. Mohl byste vysv\u011btlit, co t\u00edm mysl\u00edte?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V r\u00e1mci statistick\u00e9ho m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed doch\u00e1z\u00ed k \u00faprav\u00e1m spot\u0159ebn\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eeb. Nap\u0159\u00edklad, kdy\u017e v n\u011bm m\u00e1te po\u010d\u00edta\u010d, kter\u00fd m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdkon nebo chladni\u010dku s ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebou, tak statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad to prom\u00edtne do cen jako sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed, a to d\u00edky lep\u0161\u00ed kvalit\u011b. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b ale zhor\u0161en\u00ed kvality u\u017e nezohled\u0148uje. To m\u016f\u017eeme vid\u011bt u potravin, kter\u00e9 jsou \u010dasto m\u00e9n\u011b kvalitn\u00ed nebo jsou vyprodukov\u00e1ny neudr\u017eiteln\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. Hor\u0161\u00ed kvalitu evidujeme i p\u0159i slu\u017eb\u00e1ch, av\u0161ak to u\u017e statistici neprom\u00edtnou do kone\u010dn\u00fdch cen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Dal\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed je zm\u011bna v\u00e1hy n\u011bkter\u00fdch polo\u017eek ve spot\u0159ebn\u00edm ko\u0161i. Nap\u0159\u00edklad v N\u011bmecku na\u0161i statistici v pr\u016fb\u011bhu let dali v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed v\u00e1hu levn\u00e9mu n\u00e1bytku vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9mu z d\u0159evot\u0159\u00edsky nam\u00edsto z masivu. A to u\u017e nemluv\u00edm o jeho kvalit\u011b, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b \u010dase a nervech, kter\u00e9 ztrat\u00edte p\u0159i montov\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00e9ho n\u00e1bytku.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">T\u0159et\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdm faktem je to, \u017ee Evropsk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad do spot\u0159ebn\u00edho ko\u0161e nezapo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1v\u00e1 ceny nemovitost\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Zn\u00e1te web shadowstats.com, kter\u00fd pravideln\u011b zve\u0159ej\u0148uje mimo jin\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitelskou inflaci v USA, kterou po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b podle n\u011bjak\u00e9 star\u0161\u00ed metodologie?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Mysl\u00edte si, \u017ee jejich \u010d\u00edsla jsou spr\u00e1vn\u00e1, proto\u017ee podle nich je sou\u010dasn\u00e1 inflace m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 indexem CPI na \u00farovni v\u00edce ne\u017e 15 procent, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed statistika hovo\u0159\u00ed jen o r\u016fstu necel\u00fdch 10 procent?<br>Jak jsem \u0159ekl u\u017e d\u0159\u00edve, v\u0161echno to z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed, jak si zadefinujete inflaci.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Co se ale sp\u00ed\u0161e bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed realit\u011b? V\u00edce ne\u017e 15procentn\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen v USA nebo necel\u00fdch 10 procent, jak tvrd\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed statistika?<br>Nezn\u00e1m p\u0159esn\u011b metodologii shadowstats.com, ale sp\u00ed\u0161e to bude 15 procent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky v \u010dele s americk\u00fdm Fedem, k n\u011bmu\u017e se letos p\u0159id\u00e1 i ECB, za\u010daly utahovat monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politiku. To znamen\u00e1 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farok\u016f, zastaven\u00ed odkupu cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f. Mysl\u00edte si, \u017ee to povede nakonec k ekonomick\u00e9 recesi?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Je to velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9. Mus\u00edte se v\u0161ak na celou problematiku d\u00edvat z dlouhodob\u00e9 perspektivy. Kdy\u017e centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky za\u010dnou prov\u00e1d\u011bt uvoln\u011bnou politiku, tak to m\u00e1 kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b pozitivn\u00ed vliv na ekonomick\u00fd r\u016fst. Z dlouhodob\u00e9ho hlediska je to v\u0161ak pro hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed. A p\u0159esn\u011b naopak to funguje p\u0159i restriktivn\u00ed monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politice. Ta z kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9ho pohledu \u0161kod\u00ed ekonomice, ale z dlouhodob\u00e9 perspektivy pom\u00e1h\u00e1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b nebudou vznikat bubliny nap\u0159\u00edklad na akciov\u00fdch trz\u00edch \u010di v nemovitostech. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b to vede k mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed efektivnosti mezi firmami, kter\u00e9 jsou potom produktivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Krom\u011b toho st\u00e1t nem\u016f\u017ee zbyte\u010dn\u011b utr\u00e1cet pen\u00edze da\u0148ov\u00fdch poplatn\u00edk\u016f a hospoda\u0159it deficitn\u011b. To v\u0161e se nakonec odraz\u00ed na dlouhodob\u00e9m ekonomick\u00e9m r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A pokud se tam chceme dostat, tak si budeme muset proj\u00edt \u201e\u00fadol\u00edm slz\u201c, tedy hospod\u00e1\u0159skou reces\u00ed. Stejn\u011b to bylo v 70. letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed v USA. Tehdej\u0161\u00ed guvern\u00e9r Fedu Paul Volcker kv\u016fli vysok\u00e9 inflaci musel zvednout \u00faroky a\u017e na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20 procent. To se velmi rychle projevilo na ekonomick\u00e9m poklesu. Z dlouhodob\u00e9ho pohledu v\u0161ak n\u00e1sledn\u011b do\u0161lo k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9mu r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kdy\u017e zmi\u0148ujete pr\u00e1v\u011b toto obdob\u00ed 70. let minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed, USA v t\u00e9 dob\u011b proch\u00e1zely takzvanou stagflac\u00ed, tedy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst a vysok\u00e1 inflace. Mysl\u00edte si, \u017ee se moment\u00e1ln\u011b nach\u00e1z\u00edme ve stejn\u00e9m stavu?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">J\u00e1 si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee se pr\u00e1v\u011b nach\u00e1z\u00edme v takov\u00e9m stavu. Predikce HDP hovo\u0159\u00ed o velmi mal\u00e9m r\u016fstu, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e inflace m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdmi cenami je na vzestupu. Ot\u00e1zka nyn\u00ed je d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e dlouho z\u016fstaneme v tomto stavu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Rozhoduj\u00edc\u00ed bude, jak rychle dostanou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry nad sou\u010dasnou inflaci. Porovn\u00e1te-li si jak rychle, resp. pomalu jednaj\u00ed, tak se bav\u00edme o n\u011bkolika letech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Proto\u017ee p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1te, \u017ee inflace zde bude s n\u00e1mi d\u00e9le, ne\u017e se proti n\u00ed mohou br\u00e1nit oby\u010dejn\u00ed lid\u00e9?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To je velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9, nebo\u0165 inflace je makroekonomick\u00fd fenom\u00e9n. Kdy\u017e se bav\u00edme o n\u00e1r\u016fstu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen, tak jedin\u00fdm jednoduch\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem je ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159eba. J\u00e1 v\u00edm, \u017ee to zn\u00ed tvrd\u011b, a to zejm\u00e9na v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b n\u00edzkop\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdch skupin, kter\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161inu sv\u00e9ho rodinn\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu utrat\u00ed na stravu, energie a ubytov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">V Evrop\u011b a USA jsme na tom je\u0161t\u011b docela dob\u0159e, proto\u017ee jsme relativn\u011b bohat\u00ed, mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vliv n\u00e1r\u016fstu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00edch. Mimochodem, do kter\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st na\u0161\u00ed inflace vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">N\u011bkdo tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee bychom m\u011bli ochr\u00e1nit p\u0159ed ztr\u00e1tou kupn\u00ed s\u00edly na\u0161e \u00faspory prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm n\u00e1kupu n\u011bjak\u00fdch re\u00e1ln\u00fdch aktiv. Jen\u017ee v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jde o docela riskantn\u00ed spekulaci. Kdybyste se nap\u0159\u00edklad rozhodli koupit n\u011bjakou nemovitost, tak hroz\u00ed, \u017ee ceny d\u00edky n\u00e1r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb poklesnou a vy p\u0159ijdete o \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9 investice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b, pokud si nech\u00e1te pen\u00edze na bankovn\u00edm \u00fa\u010dtu, tak ztrat\u00ed kupn\u00ed s\u00edlu d\u00edky n\u00e1r\u016fstu cen. \u010cili jsme se dostali do velmi komplikovan\u00e9 situace, za kterou jsou zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Kdy\u017e p\u0159ed v\u00edce ne\u017e 10 lety vypuklo Arabsk\u00e9 jaro, kdy\u017e do\u0161lo k p\u0159evrat\u016fm ve v\u00edce rozvojov\u00fdch zem\u00edch, tak se dod\u00e1valo i do souvisu s velk\u00fdm zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00edm v t\u011bchto st\u00e1tech. Nehroz\u00ed n\u011bco podobn\u00e9ho pro vysokou inflaci i ve vysp\u011blej\u0161\u00edch zem\u00edch?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vylou\u010dit to nelze. Inflace, respektive cenov\u00e1 stabilita jde v ruku v ruce s ekonomickou stabilitou. Kdy\u017e podnikatel\u00e9 nedok\u00e1\u017eou pl\u00e1novat kv\u016fli cenov\u00e9 nejistot\u011b, t\u00edm p\u00e1dem m\u00e9n\u011b investuj\u00ed a hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed oslabuje, co\u017e se projev\u00ed na r\u016fstu zam\u011bstnanosti, ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159eb\u011b a dra\u017e\u0161\u00edch zbo\u017e\u00edch a slu\u017eb\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Takov\u00e1 situace se n\u00e1sledn\u011b projev\u00ed iv politick\u00e9 nestabilit\u011b. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky by se m\u011bly sna\u017eit vyhnout za ka\u017edou cenu vysok\u00e9 inflaci, proto\u017ee se \u010dasto projevuje skryt\u011b a z\u00e1ludn\u011b. To se ov\u0161em ned\u011bje. ECB je st\u00e1le velmi v\u00e1hav\u00e1. U\u017e p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika m\u011bs\u00edci v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b ekonom\u016f a analytik\u016f bylo jasn\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed obdob\u00ed zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed a nep\u016fjde o p\u0159echodn\u00fd jev. P\u0159esto ve Frankfurtu (s\u00eddlo ECB, pozn. red.) st\u00e1le ot\u00e1leli s ukon\u010den\u00edm expanzivn\u00ed monet\u00e1rn\u00ed politiky. Vysv\u011btlovali to t\u00edm, \u017ee mus\u00ed po\u010dkat na potvrzuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fadaje a podobn\u011b. Vyzn\u00edv\u00e1 to v\u0161ak velmi komicky.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pokud by sou\u010dasn\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed pokra\u010dovalo d\u00e9le a v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm tempem, n\u011bmeck\u00fd ekonom Gunther Schnabl nevylu\u010duje revoluce ani v n\u011bkter\u00fdch vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00edch sv\u011bta.U\u017e je to t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 rok, co lid\u00e9 nejen na Slovensku, ale v t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u0161ech vysp\u011bl\u00fdch zem\u00edch sv\u011bta za\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed velk\u00e9 zdra\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed. Rodinn\u00e9 rozpo\u010dty jsou st\u00e1le napjat\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a spot\u0159ebitel\u00e9 \u010di podnikatel\u00e9 sleduj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 denn\u011b, jak jim rostou [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":433,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"tdm_status":"","tdm_grid_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-432","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-finance"],"amp_enabled":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=432"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/432\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/433"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=432"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=432"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/1-zpravy.cz\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=432"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}